what you write makes sense and what you explain has occurred since time began, really. having bought my first shares in 1985 i have seen many cycles. 2017-2021 was a strong one- but an outlier. it made many believe it was their skill not the market pricing up risk, and that has happened many times before. as buffet has been saying forever, the stock market moves wealth from the unknowledgeable to the knowledgeable and the impatient to the patient and it will continue to do so imo. to me the growth area has always been more challenging, because it requires more product/industry knowledge, but so be it, persevere, you appear to have learnt from the experience, i think you never stop learning something in this game, i am after 35+ years investing!
Another excellent piece JP - you demonstrate the humility you advocate for. By the way those performance numbers from the last two years don't look that bad to me. My sense is my own performance would be worse (although maybe I'd claw some back from 1H FY22).
Hey do you follow CJ Gustafson's substack? He had an interesting one recently on Revenue/Employee being the metric to rule them all. I'd be interested in your thoughts and it could be a possible future idea for an article. I'm not fully sold on it for several reasons, including availability of the data and lag, but it might be interesting to track some Australian microcaps with this lens.
Thanks so much for the comment. You've been great, I appreciate the kudos and you sharing my work, means so much mate.
On performance, well, consolation for both of us is that 2 years is a very short period of time hahaha.
On CJ Gustafson; hadn't heard of him prior; I've not given him a follow and will read his take on Revenue/Employee. It's on the list, alongside ~10 others of posts I have in the category of 'metrics'. Love that you prompted me to actually put in the work into it, and offered an inspiration for it. I will look at it for my usual ~100ish companies. Stay tuned! Keen to see what we find there.
A brilliantly thought out essay and so very much ‘on the money’ regardless of what kind of investor you are. As a value investor with a shorter time frame, ROE, dividend streams and Balance Sheet strength are more important to me. That said, the past numbers can mask future problems and so your commentary about topping up on management execution is so valid. I would add two additional ‘demons’ for me - confirmation bias and anchoring on price. Congratulations on your practical & enlightening reflection.
I'm as guilty as the next investor of confirmation bias and anchoring. Thankfully with time I've had many examples of were these biases have hurt me and caused me to miss out, so I try to remind myself of them when I feel they might be at play! (This does require self-awareness which isn't guaranteed either). Oh the joys! All that you learn from this fun passion.
I will add this captain, I have tripled my micro exposure this calendar year, and keen to add incrementally, I just hope I’m in the right stocks, not all will recover—2 year view
what you write makes sense and what you explain has occurred since time began, really. having bought my first shares in 1985 i have seen many cycles. 2017-2021 was a strong one- but an outlier. it made many believe it was their skill not the market pricing up risk, and that has happened many times before. as buffet has been saying forever, the stock market moves wealth from the unknowledgeable to the knowledgeable and the impatient to the patient and it will continue to do so imo. to me the growth area has always been more challenging, because it requires more product/industry knowledge, but so be it, persevere, you appear to have learnt from the experience, i think you never stop learning something in this game, i am after 35+ years investing!
Love this comment!
You're 100% right, you never stop learning. Big fan of that Buffet quote you mention in there too....
Another excellent piece JP - you demonstrate the humility you advocate for. By the way those performance numbers from the last two years don't look that bad to me. My sense is my own performance would be worse (although maybe I'd claw some back from 1H FY22).
Hey do you follow CJ Gustafson's substack? He had an interesting one recently on Revenue/Employee being the metric to rule them all. I'd be interested in your thoughts and it could be a possible future idea for an article. I'm not fully sold on it for several reasons, including availability of the data and lag, but it might be interesting to track some Australian microcaps with this lens.
Thanks so much for the comment. You've been great, I appreciate the kudos and you sharing my work, means so much mate.
On performance, well, consolation for both of us is that 2 years is a very short period of time hahaha.
On CJ Gustafson; hadn't heard of him prior; I've not given him a follow and will read his take on Revenue/Employee. It's on the list, alongside ~10 others of posts I have in the category of 'metrics'. Love that you prompted me to actually put in the work into it, and offered an inspiration for it. I will look at it for my usual ~100ish companies. Stay tuned! Keen to see what we find there.
A brilliantly thought out essay and so very much ‘on the money’ regardless of what kind of investor you are. As a value investor with a shorter time frame, ROE, dividend streams and Balance Sheet strength are more important to me. That said, the past numbers can mask future problems and so your commentary about topping up on management execution is so valid. I would add two additional ‘demons’ for me - confirmation bias and anchoring on price. Congratulations on your practical & enlightening reflection.
Thanks so much Damian for the kind words.
I'm as guilty as the next investor of confirmation bias and anchoring. Thankfully with time I've had many examples of were these biases have hurt me and caused me to miss out, so I try to remind myself of them when I feel they might be at play! (This does require self-awareness which isn't guaranteed either). Oh the joys! All that you learn from this fun passion.
Thanks again for the comment, I appreciate it!
I will add this captain, I have tripled my micro exposure this calendar year, and keen to add incrementally, I just hope I’m in the right stocks, not all will recover—2 year view